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There is much to challenge in it, and some has already been challenged by people like Ryan Carey. Perhaps I will go into it at more length later. He writes — and I am editing liberally to keep it short, so be sure to read the whole thing: The number of future humans who will never exist if humans go extinct is so great that reducing the risk of extinction by 0.
That argues, in the judgment of Bostrom and others, for prioritizing efforts to prevent human extinction above other endeavors.
But those probability values are literally just made up. And yet for the argument to work, you need to be able to make those kinds of distinctions. The AI risk movement generally agrees, and neither depends on it nor uses it very often. Nevertheless, this is what Matthews wants to discuss.
But that depends exactly how small the chance of your anti-x-risk plan working is. Well, actually, we do know.
Let me try to justify this. Consider which of the following seems intuitively more likely: Or second, that despite our best efforts, a research institute completes an unfriendly superintelligence. The researcher is sucked high into the air. There he is struck by a meteorite hurtling through the upper atmosphere, which knocks him onto the rooftop of a nearby building.
He survives the landing, but unfortunately at precisely that moment the building is blown up by Al Qaeda. His charred corpse is flung into the street nearby.
Which is actually kind of funny, because he just won the same lottery last week. The chance of the next election being Sanders vs. To take that number seriously is to assert that the second scenario is ten times more likely than the first!
In Made Up StatisticsI discuss how sometimes our system one intuitive reasoning and system two mathematical reasoning can act as useful checks on each other.
They argue that the good a doctor does by treating illnesses is minimal compared to the good she can do by earning to give. Their reasoning goes like this: The value of the earning to give is so much higher then the value of the actual doctoring that you might as well skip the doctoring entirely and go into whatever earns you the most money.
He very virtuously decides to double-check that assumption with numbers, even if he has to make up the numbers himself.
But one more point. In that case, I offer him the following whatever-the-opposite-of-a-gift is: Like that a person who wants to cure as much disease as possible would be better off becoming a hedge fund manager than a doctor. Or that a person who wants to reduce suffering in the world should focus almost obsessively on chickens.
One of the founding beliefs of effective altruism is that when math tells you something weird, you at least consider trusting the math. Everyone has their own idea of what trusting the math entails and how far they want to go with it.
Some people go further than I do. Other people go less far. But anybody who makes a good-faith effort to trust it even a little is, in my opinion, an acceptable ally worth including in the effective altruist tent.
Matthews is firmly underneath the effective-altruist tent. Effective altruists need to stop talking about animals if they ever want to attract anybody besides white males into the movement.
Malcolm Muggeridge describes a vision he once had, of everyone in the world riding together on a giant train toward realms unknown.HOW VIG IS DELIVERED Video interaction guidance is an intervention where the client is guided to reflect on video clips of their own successful interactions.
Mellow Corn is a straight corn whiskey which has been aged in used Heaven Hill barrels. Unlike bourbon, which needs to have at least 51% corn in its mashbill and aged in new charred oak barrels, a corn whiskey must contain at least 80% corn in its mashbill and, if aged, can be aged in new uncharred or used oak barrels.
South Africa’s taxi industry, which carries an estimated 60% of the country’s commuters, is a multi billion rand pie. It’s no surprise then that both international and local venture-funded startups, like Silicon Valley’s Uber and Cape Town’s Zapacab, are hungry for a slice..
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A The data are presented as frequency normalized on- and off-axis response curves for different radius of the flat baffle.. I thank Tim Mellow and Leo Karkkainen for generating the graphs, which required many hours of computer time.
The graph for b=8a had to be truncated at ka = 5 because each data point took hours to calculate.